TL;DR: Two guys forced me on the ground in a ghetto Parisian suburb, looked through my possessions, laughed at my nationality and decided to have pity on me and leave me only physically and psychologically shaken up.

French police report after attempted mugging

Nate Silver’s Hypothesized Risk of U.S. Debt Default

On Monday night, Nate Silver, resident statistics extraordinaire at the New York Times, wrote about whether investors were yet reacting to the debt ceiling crisis unfolding in Washington, D.C.

Silver produced a chart of “hypothesized risk of U.S. debt default” on the assumption that since July 3 the odds of getting a deal to raise the debt ceiling increase by 1 percent every day until the odds reach 30 percent in the final 24 hours before the drop-dead deadline.

He also pegged those odds to how Wall Street was so far reacting to crisis, starting with Monday’s market results: The Dow dropping by 88 points. He extrapolated the odds and the market behavior to show that, hypothetically, by August 2, we could see the Dow drop a total of 4,400 points (!) if there is no deal by the deadline.

I decided to take his hypothesized risk and market prices to a little, simple spreadsheet to see how his assessment is performing. The verdict: The market is overperforming so far, and based on current behavior, could be projected to lose 2,493 points (as of 2:42 p.m. EDT) instead of Silver’s 4,400 points.

Many caveats here! First, I am no statistics whiz. Second, I am no markets or investing whiz. Third, I am no economist. Silver has caveats, too:

The real world, of course, is considerably more complicated. You’d have to account for possibilities such as that the Treasury actually has another week or so worth of slack, and that Mr. Obama would cite constitutional provisions and would act to prevent a default if he were left with no other choice.

Below is my chart. Please let me know if there’s anything wrong with it. Again, note that we’re dealing with hypotheticals.

Update: At market close today, the Dow has lost almost 200 points. So our model now points to a total 2,680-point loss between July 25 and August 2 if no deal is reached. Standard caveats apply. Later today I will update the spreadsheet to include the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.

According to a local resident, who requested anonymity because his son works for Walmart, Dean’s crew was present Tuesday fundraising and handing out materials to shoppers as they left the store.

The source, who also works in retail, expressed annoyance, anger and surprise, after hearing reports from this website, Bluestem Prairie and City Pages that Walmart has, in fact, banned the group from its stores.

“I don’t think they should be spreading this bull,” he said.

He managed to pick up some of the materials being proffered by staff. They apparently included content by two doctors, Ann Blake Tracy, who claims antidepressants are no more effective than a placebo, and Leonard Horowitz, whose website offers homeopathic remedies, prayers, advances the widely discredited hypothesis that vaccinations cause autism and “[zaps] you with love” and “living water.”

These materials bothered him, but he also disliked what he called their “homophobia.”

“Real adults shouldn’t be concerned about what other adults do in their own bedrooms,” he said. “It certainly doesn’t affect my relationship with my wife.”

Upon registering his concern with managers at the Walmart store, the group was kicked out, although managers seemed annoyed and unconcerned with the problem, he said.

He also spotted Dean’s crew at Econo Foods, a grocery chain with locations in rural Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, which is owned by Nash Finch of Edina, Minn. His complaints achieved a similar result.

Retailers seem to remain unaware of what they bargained for when they allow Dean’s group to proselytize customers, despite the numerous encounters and press they have endured.

Not happy with that, the source intends to call the number he was given, supposedly for a regional marketing manager for Walmart.

In the wake of the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s tally of the 138 legislators who are currently accepting pay during shutdown of Minnesota’s state government, I decided to do some back-of-the-napkin mathematics, and I tweeted my results:

139 legislators collecting paychecks during shutdown — about $106,729.15 over past 9 days http://j.mp/nPK0AK #mnshutdown #mnleg #stribpol

2011-07-09 23:01 via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite

@anthonycmaki

Anthony C. Maki

At the time of the tweet, the Star Tribune reported 139 legislators were receiving pay. That number has since been revised down by one.

My tweet — revealing that about $106,729.15 had so far been sent to legislators who have not yet reached a deal, or even close it seems — was retweeted so much that I think daily updates are in order. In fact, it might be my most retweeted comment.

Turns out that approximately $11,773.48 will leave state coffers every day during the shutdown. The number will go down slightly at the beginning of August — if we’re still in shutdown mode — as the late requests by three legislators to forgo pay are initiated.

Here is the formula:

N (number of legislators receiving pay) × D (number of days of shutdown) / 365 × $31,140 (annual income of legislators, per the Minnesota House website) ≈ M (total money paid out to legislators)

A few caveats: This, of course, is an approximate measurement that doesn’t consider the frequency with which the legislators are actually paid, and it doesn’t include (and shouldn’t include) the often substantial per diem to which they are entitled seven days a week for living and travel expenses during the regular legislative session.

The A/B testing experiment then yielded $60 million more in donations and nearly three million more email addresses. As 2012 approaches and Obama kicks back into campaign gear, his staff are once again employing A/B testing—this time, giving you a splash screen with or without a photo of the commander-in-chief beside the question, “Are you in?”

It will not surprise many that the White House, too, is adopting optimized messaging. In a Tuesday update to some of its Facebook fans, the White House specifically called out a small geographic constituency with this headline: “President Obama Discusses Economic Growth with Mayor R.T. Rybak.” R.T. Rybak, of course, is the mayor of Minneapolis, Minn.

The White House’s geo-targeted message for Facebook fans

Following the link to the blog post on the White House’s website, there’s no obvious sign that the story was intended for Minneapolitans to read. Rybak is the third-to-last mayor listed as having attended the economic growth meeting between American mayors, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

The White House’s national message for WhiteHouse.gov visitors

Update: The White House did not respond to a request for comment on possible demographic-targeting with its Facebook page’s updates.

Known for stances that gays should be jailed or even executed, YCRBYCH has previously allegedly deceived businesses where they canvassed about their intent.

Two young men in t-shirts stood behind a table with the ministry’s banner draped over the front as moderate rain fell in the northwestern suburb of Minneapolis. On the table, they had laid out magazines, pamphlets, CDs and other materials. A woman asked about their CDs and whether and what type of music they contained.

This reporter was on an errand to pick up photographs for his sister’s graduation party when the pair were spotted. Returning later that afternoon, the canvassers had left.

Asked for comment, a manager said that “you’ll want to talk to him.” Another manager said “we originally approved them” but that they later received a call from a regional office at which point they asked the group to leave. He directed media inquiries to a corporate 800 number.

YCRBYCH received media attention near the end of the Minnesota Legislature’s session, when founder Bradlee Dean, by invitation, delivered an opening prayer that many considered offensive, suggesting President Obama lies about his religion.

Blogger Sally Jo Sorensen reported on the group’s activities at other Walmart locations in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

Audio from the interview with the Walmart managers will be uploaded but is currently not possible remotely.

I suppose it shouldn’t surprise me that ‘You Can Run But You Can’t Hide Ministries’ is canvassing in front of the Anoka Walmart.

2011-06-18 13:26 via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite

@anthonycmaki

Anthony C. Maki

Media inquiries: (612) 568‑6254 anthony@acmaki.com

Hey Anthony. Sorry to hear about your break up […] Anywho, don’t feel sad. I hope you are not thinking that your time was wasted. As long as you got something out of the experience and as long as you learned something or felt something you’ve never felt before, it was all worth it. Take time to heal. And like the great [Marilyn Monroe] said, “Some things fall apart so better things can fall together.” Chin up kiddo, head held high, and if it’s worth fighting for do so! If not, like they say, if you love something, then let it go. If it doesn’t come back, it was never yours to begin with.

I had a great interview at Wells Fargo on Monday, and I should hear the outcome of that within the week. Thanks for reading.

So far, after having two interviews, I have not yet achieved my goal. Tonight, as I was modifying my action plan, it occurred to me that it might be fun to share it with folks — what with social media and the Internet and all.

This post will also function as an open letter to anyone who may have some choice piece of advice or a lead for a nice helping of gainful employment.

So, if you’re interested in seeing how I’m tracking my job search (via a Google Spreadsheet), have at it! If you have advice, comment here or email me. :)

P.S. An aside, I’m still feeling glowy about manipulating CSS and iframes to inlay my social media buttons on my portrait (by Caleb Williams).

P.P.S. Obligatory #Weinergate mention goes here.

The college’s chief information officer James Dillemuth advised students, faculty and staff of the threat in a May 18 letter, informing them that the college was forcing password changes on college accounts.

“We strongly urge you to change passwords,” Dillemuth wrote, “on any personal accounts accessed from the college between the affected dates to protect yourself against possible identity theft.”

Personal accounts include social networks like Facebook and Twitter, personal banking websites and personal email services like Yahoo, Gmail, Windows Live and Hotmail.

Dillemuth referred to an attachment explaining how to choose a strong password, but the letter obtained included no attachment.

The breach should not affect those who accessed the college’s wireless networks between the dates with their own computers, but users should remain cautious.

MCTC has experienced technical difficulties before. In early fall 2010 then-director of finance Dee Bernard inadvertently posted student information to a public budget directory, violating the college’s private student data disclosure policy.

See the letter below:

Updated to reflect that the letter addressed students, faculty and staff.

To be honest, when I heard that Minneapolis was enduring temperatures and wind chills in the far negative range, the Minnesotan in me was yearning to go back. Last semester, I was a liberal arts student at MCTC and editor in chief of City College News.

This semester, I am a student at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., and a political journalism intern at The Daily Caller, a newly-minted online news organization. I will be returning to Minnesota at the conclusion of spring semester. However, while I am away, I hope to send students at MCTC dispatches from Washington — on politics, professional experiences and the like.

As I write this, the political establishment and the news media are anxiously speculating about the what-ifs and the maneuvering in advance of tonight’s State of the Union address, President Barack Obama’s third take on the political tradition. (Readers may watch it here tonight at 8 p.m. Central time.)

It’s 45 degrees right now, but beginning with what Obama lays out in his speech, the heat is only going to build up. According to an unscientific online poll conducted by the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a plurality — 343 out of 1022 votes — want to see Obama address “curbing national debt,” as of 3:45 p.m. Central time.

Either a coincidence or some slight evidence of foresight on Obama’s part, ABC News’ Jake Tapper reported that the president will propose bringing the federal budget under an overall freeze and banning earmarks in the legislation that the U.S. House and Senate pass.

In my column “In era of budget cuts, let’s get our priorities straight,” from the Dec. 10, 2010, issue of City College News, I wrote that the process behind our college and our higher education system has gone too far in resembling an assembly line.

What we are seeing now is that the federal government, too, without new revenue streams and with tax cut extensions, cannot continue to dig deeper in its purse. That is why Obama will call for a 5-year spending freeze. Now, this is in addition to Minnesota’s anticipated budget cuts, not a freeze, to alleviate the state’s estimated $6 billion deficit.

Students, educators and administrators in higher education and in public education will need to be vigilant during this time of budget freezes and cuts.

The University of Minnesota’s newspaper, The Minnesota Daily, covered its president’s visit to the state legislature, where he made the case that education funding should be a priority.

“For every dollar you invest in us, we return, indirectly, four dollars of economic activity,” U of M President Bob Bruininks told legislators.

A separate college system from Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU), the U of M will likely be in competition for funding that Minnesota community colleges and state universities also want.

To preserve Minnesota’s top-to-bottom educational legacy, students and those who hold a stake in this system might look to the Minnesota State College Student Association (MSCSA), whose vice president, Geoff Dittberner, is an MCTC student. They might look to their elected leaders at the state and federal level. They might look to Governor Mark Dayton or to President Obama.

Ultimately, they must look to themselves to ensure the government protects this important investment.